If it seems fishy to you that the Cavaliers are No. 20 in the polls but getting six points against the unranked Red Raiders, you’re not alone. As good as the Texas Tech spread offense is, Virginia has an excellent pass rush and matches up very well in nearly every other facet of this contest.

The lesser Cavs offense lost a key player when RB Cedric Peerman was injured, but Mikell Simpson has stepped in and provided 4.3 yards per carry and 9.6 yards per catch. Texas Tech is not very good at stopping the run, losing four games that way. Between Simpson and QB Jameel Sewell, Virginia should be able to run the Red Raiders defense ragged.

At the other end, it’s up to Cavs DE Chris Long to get in Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell’s grill. The spread will make it difficult, but Long is a game-changer, just like his old man. He’ll find a way.